60 Days to the U.S. Midterms: Trump Is Not on the Ballot, but the Election Is About Him

Strategic Advisory Services (SAS) CEO Hakan Akbaş joined Şafak Tükle on CNBC-e to discuss the November 3 U.S. midterm elections. According to Akbaş, the vote will determine not only the balance of power in Congress, but also the political verdict on the first two years of Donald Trump’s second term.

Akbaş summarized the electoral equation in one sentence:

“The economy is the issue, Trump is the referendum, and Iran is the link between the two.”

Americans will not be electing a president on November 3. All seats in the House of Representatives and roughly one-third of the Senate will be contested. Yet, as Akbaş noted, midterm elections almost inevitably become a referendum on the sitting president.

This year, that dynamic is even more pronounced.

For voters, however, the election will be shaped less by Washington’s institutional debates than by the cost of everyday life.

“Americans will judge Trump not through inflation statistics, but through their grocery bills, mortgage payments and prices at the gas pump.”

According to Akbaş, the cost of living remains at the center of the election. The prolonged Iran war, uncertainty in energy markets and higher gasoline prices have also transformed foreign policy into a direct domestic political issue. Given Trump’s 2024 promises to end wars and bring prices down, voters are now assessing his performance against those two commitments.

The Republican Strategy: Shift the Debate from Trump to the Alternative

Akbaş argues that the Republicans’ most realistic objective is not to dramatically improve Trump’s approval ratings in the remaining weeks.

Instead, their strategy will be to prevent the election from becoming a simple up-or-down referendum on Trump and turn it into a choice between Trump and the Democratic alternative.

Immigration, border security, crime, taxes and the progressive wing of the Democratic Party are therefore likely to dominate Republican messaging.

“The Republican path to victory is not to make Trump popular again. It is to convince voters that the Democratic alternative carries greater risk.”

Trump’s declining approval rating nevertheless creates a serious vulnerability, particularly among independent voters and in terms of voter turnout.

As Akbaş put it:

“Trump has not lost MAGA. But MAGA alone is not enough for Republicans to win the election.”

The Democratic Challenge: Being Anti-Trump Is Not Enough

For Democrats, Akbaş argues that the central challenge is not the absence of a single national leader.

The party instead needs to turn opposition to Trump into a credible economic alternative in the relatively small number of competitive districts that will determine control of Congress.

The cost of living, healthcare, housing expenses and the economic consequences of the Iran war provide Democrats with potentially powerful campaign issues.

But the central question remains:

“Everyone knows what Democrats are against. Can they explain clearly what they are for?”

Democrats therefore do not necessarily need a new Obama before November. They need candidates who can speak effectively to Pennsylvania in Pennsylvania, Michigan in Michigan and Arizona in Arizona — while keeping the campaign focused on issues that matter to swing voters.

Whoever Defines the Question May Determine the Result

Akbaş expects the final 60 days of the campaign to become a battle over which question voters are ultimately asked to answer.

Republicans will try to focus the debate on immigration, crime, socialism and cultural issues.

Democrats will seek to keep attention on grocery prices, gasoline, healthcare, housing and the economic consequences of the Iran war.

“Whoever succeeds in defining the central question of this election will probably determine its outcome.”

Ultimately, Akbaş argues that the defining question facing American voters on November 3 will be less ideological and far more practical:

“Is my life more affordable, more secure and more predictable than it was two years ago?”

İsterseniz bunu ayrıca daha kurumsal bir SAS “Insights” yazısı formatında, daha az televizyon söyleşisi havasında ve uluslararası müşterilere yönelik bir tona da çevirebilirim.

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